iPhone a Success Story or Flop?
Depending on which stories you’ve read, there’s little over a month now until the iPhone is released in the U.S., and from what I’ve read there’s a series of mixed reactions.
Writing for http://www.iphonematters.com allows me to take a lot of interest and involvement in the iPhone’s continuing story and, as I’m sure many readers of the site will know, I’ve submitted post after post of “another survey suggests.” There’s been an absolutely ridiculous amount of polls and surveys concerning the iPhone since its announcement back in January, more than any other phone I imagine, which leads me to believe Apple will need to do very little advertising when launch day races closer in.
As you’d probably guess, there’s a mixed reaction among the mobile phone crowd worldwide, with many suggesting it’ll be a huge flop. But according to a few surveys there’s also a lot of good news to come for Apple.
Sore Pocket
Lacking 3G and not-so-great battery life aside, the money factor is one putting many people off. According to Seeking Alpha, a survey conducted by ChangeWave Alliance back in April suggests that only a small number of people surveyed, just 1%, would consider buying the 8GB iPhone with a $499 price tag, $100 less than it’s going on sale for—absolutely no one was interested in paying the full price for it. It’s only when the phone price comes down to a reasonable $399 for the 8GB and $299 for the 4GB models that consumers really sit up and take notice.
Another survey conducted suggests even worse is to come for Apple unless it can do something about the price. A whopping 94% of current cell phone users say they aren’t interested in buying the iPhone until the price comes down to something more affordable, according to Markitecture , who conducted their poll back in April as well. The results suggest that out of the 77% aware of the iPhone’s existence, 41% rated it as an excellent device, with another 21% claiming it to be rather poor. But regardless of how good people think the iPhone is going to be, only 6% showed any interest in buying the phone with the rest seriously put off by the high price tag.
Big, Sexy Beast
Believe it or not, the iPhone’s apparent “high storage capacity” is something that is attracting many consumers to the device, but I bet they aren’t aware that you can’t expand on that lovely 8GB of storage.
Broadband Wireless Exchange Magazine conducted a survey and found some rather positive facts. First and foremost, 45% of Americans are aware of the iPhone’s existence, which is pretty good, and the large storage is all to thank for that. Apparently out of that 45%, 37% were attracted to the iPhone because of the monster 8GB storage capability, with 36% enticed by quad-band worldwide capabilities and a further 31% interested in the “cool” interface. One thing that does baffle me slightly with the percentages here is that they add up to 104%—so I’m still undecided on whether or not this survey is legit or if the surveyors simply miscalculated something. Either way it certainly makes for positive reading.
Some Kind of Monster
As you can imagine, writing about all these surveys on iPhone Matters does give me a serious headache, but in yet another one conducted by ChangeWave Alliance it seems that the iPhone will become a monster, at least according to Patrick Seitz of Investor’s Business Daily.
The poll suggests that 9% of 3,500 people surveyed would be buying the iPhone, with another 7% saying they would buy the phone for someone else as a gift. Mr. Seitz seems to believe that this is “huge” and the iPhone is “going to be a monster.” Somewhere among these facts it’s also been reported that 79% said they would consider dumping their existing wireless carrier to switch to AT&T to grab the iPhone.
iPod Therefore iPhone
Cellular News is reporting that a poll which ran back in April questioned 2,000 employed adults in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U.K. and found that iPod owners were the most likely mobile phone users to upgrade to the iPhone when it’s released.
A large chunk of those surveyed (84%) will be heading to Nokia for their next phone upgrade with the rest broken up between Sony Ericsson, Samsung, Apple, and Motorola, etc. However, out of those surveyed with an iPod, almost half would more than likely buy the iPhone, where only 20% lacked interest. Could the iPod’s halo effect still be flying about?
My Own Spaceship and iPhone, Please
High schoolers have the most wild of imaginations and clearly don’t put money into the equation in the quest to own something, but even so, 25% of the 500 high school students surveyed in 11 different schools would buy the iPhone with its $500 price tag. Of course, as Greg Ng so rightly reports on iPhone Matters, when a teen forks out $600 for a Playstation 3 and $150 for a pair of Diesel jeans, $500 for a phone seems pretty sound.
Good news then?
It seems that most of the polls conducted were originally found on mobile phone oriented sites, with few found on Apple-only sites (which thus probably only report the good news). But I think it’s fair to say that things are looking pretty good for Apple provided the end product doesn’t let us down in some way—remember that these polls have been conducted long before the iPhone is to be released.
It’d be interesting to see what Apple Matters readers think of the iPhone and whether they would consider purchasing. If you’re put off though, tell us why.
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This story should be called “The problem with statistics”. The penetration of the iPhone will depend on users’ experience of playing with an actual, physical model, and therefore also on how effectively Apple’s distribution channels turn out at getting demos into the grubby mitts of the masses.
After all, what percentage of those surveyed really know what they’re talking about? What percentage of the population has watches the Keynote? 0.01%? 0.001?
As long as it’s profitable, who cares? That said, it’s going to be hugely successful. This is also the first iteration. The form and abilities is only going to improve. Awesome little machine.
“Apparently out of that 45%, 37% were attracted to the iPhone because of the monster 8GB storage capability, with 36% enticed by quad-band worldwide capabilities and a further 31% interested in the “cool” interface. One thing that does baffle me slightly with the percentages here is that they add up to 104%.”
Seems like within the 45%, people were allowed to pick 1, 2, or 3 enticing features.
The way the Changewave data is presented is unclear. iPhone is not a “cell phone” as people generally perceive and use them - it is a SmartPhone, a much smaller niche of the overall cellular market, the turf of Blackberry and Treo.
People with VerizonWireless accounts, and the “new every 2” option, for example, can get a new phone from them free or darn cheap every 22 months. But if you want a SmartPhone you still pay the premium. The vast majority of cell users have “regular” phones as opposed to SmartPhones. If you did a survey of SmartPhone users alone, the results may be very different.
This reminds me of when the MacMini first came out. Consumer Reports tried to compare it with a cheap Dell system, feature for feature, dollar for dollar. Of course this was a BS comparison, as Apple was not trying to intrude on Dell’s profitless, low-end market - they were making a play for Switchers, and your living room entertainment center.
Similarly, you can’t pitch the iPhone to mass-market folks using low-to-medium-end Samsungs.
The first sigh of success for the iPhone will be the lines of people forming outside the Apple Store (and ATT stores) on the day it is released. It will probably take until noon for stocks to be gone as three will be the ATT agreement to fill out and activation time.
The next indicator will be the length of time that it takes a week+ long backorder to develop. If the iPhone is released on a Monday I would expect that backorder to develop by Friday.
Apple will probably catch up on the backorder within a month, but holiday sales will boom, making it very difficult to find one to buy as a gift. I’d say buy in late Nov if you want to give one as a gift.
Then MWSF will hit and a second version will be released - if it wasn’t released for the holiday buying season. My bet is a HD version will be next and the original will get a bump in memory.
There will be another huge boost when ATT starts lowering the price with a 2 year contract.
While nothing is guaranteed I believe that the iPhone progression will be somewhat similar to the iPod, even if it is at a lower volume level.
I don’t care about the statistics. I agree with Ben…how do you make a solid buying decision when you don’t even know what the product can do fully. There may be unannounced features so cool I’d pay $999 for the phone. I’m content to wait a month and see what’s being shipped and how it integrates into my busy schedule. I’m more concerned with software and how it works than the specs like 3G and upgradable storage.
how do you make a solid buying decision when you don’t even know what the product can do fully
This should work both ways. How is “I have no interest in getting one” any different from “I’d pay $1000 for one!”? How is “it’s definitely going to flop” any more or less ignorant than “it’s going to sell out in 30 miliseconds!”?
Apple fans AND Apple detractors are notoriously horrible at prognostication (not that it isn’t fun anwyay).
The trend for ALL Apple products is that they sell extremely well to the kool-aid drinkers in the first week (just in time for Apple and the media to announce an overwhelming success). And then the “regular people” make the difference down the road when the hype dies down and the product is judged on its merits rather than its logo.
Exactly!
Exactly the scenario, the Zune went trough. First bought by agnostic zealot, then judged by regular people on its merits.
I think the horrendous sales of the Zune, even in the first week, bely the existence of any significant number of MS zealots (which is what I think you mean since “agnostic zealot” is a contradiction in terms). Without the sycophantic, open-wallet supporters that Apple enjoys, the Zune has had to float ENTIRELY on its merits, which is what has done it in so far.
You could be an agnostic zealot if you were an agnostic about one thing and a zealot about something else
the Zune has had to float ENTIRELY on its merits, which is what has done it in so far.
lol, quite.
WAWA, by Steve Jobs’ own inadvertent admission, the Zune was a big success. At MWSF he scoffed at the 1% marketshare it had achieved in the couple of months since release.
Later, in the *same* keynote, guess what marketshare percentage he identified for the iPhone to gauge it as a success… Yep, 1%.
Seems if 1% is success for the iPhone, then it must also be for the Zune.
As far as the iPhone goes,its market is much greater than the smartphone market. How many smartphones play movies and music from the iTMS?
The iPhone’s market includes anyone buying a portable media player, thus it is both the smartphone and PMP markets combined. And quite possibly, it will also include a chunk of the MP3 player market.
It’d be hard to see the iPhone fail, esp as the goal is 1%. Even the Zune could do that.
WAWA, by Steve Jobs’ own inadvertent admission, the Zune was a big success. At MWSF he scoffed at the 1% marketshare it had achieved in the couple of months since release.
Later, in the *same* keynote, guess what marketshare percentage he identified for the iPhone to gauge it as a success… Yep, 1%.
You can be pretty silly at times.
Well it seems to me that when microsoft has to sell Entirely on its own merits it does not get very far.
And now for some logic: there is absolutely no contradiction in terms with «agnostic zealot». If the zealotry consists in being agnostic, then there you have it. [exercise: With religions and atheism in mind, can you make a logical proposition with agnostic and zealot?]
Now for some statistics, as you can see in my profile, one of my interests. Would you rather have 10% of my income or 0,01% of that of Bill Gates? So now write a small paragraph why this is possible. Then print it on a t-shirt. Now you have written something meaningful that the rest of the world can read without shame.
Ben, so you’re saying 1% is not the same as 1% when:
a) it’s a different market
b) it’s Apple, not Microsoft
c) all of the above
I know you’d like to argue leverage and competition and markets and yada yada yada, but the point is, Steve looks like a total idjit scoffing at MS’s 1% whilst saying it’s his own goal.
Now *that* is silly. Except all the zealots of course won’t hear of it or admit to it. And I’d never counted you in their number before.
I’ll try again. I’ve had worse students in my time. Listen Chris, 1% ACTUALLY NEVER equals 1% if the 100 (of which % is the abbreviation) of both abbreviations does not stand for the same absolute amount. Now try this. Look at your right hand. Close all your fingers so you make a fist. Now show me 20% of your fingers!
Is that one finger? You are spot on! Now do the same with two fists. That is right. Close your eyes and both your hands. Now show 20% of your fingers. Open your eyes, See ? No no it’s not magic, there is an explanation. 1% is a FRACTION (whooo). So never make the mistake again that 1/2 of an apple equals half a zune.