Robotech.
While you are correct that the capacity of ipod storage will increase, a point I didn't argue against, you fail to understand that the marketplace is segmented and many consumers will not require 100+GB, just as they aren't required now. As time drags on, higher and higher capacity devices will be less and less important to the consumer.
While you claim my notion of more features 'won't fly' I beg to differ. The iPod does offer more; by offering the end-to-end experience, simplicity and ease of use, they do in fact have more offering than the competition.
iTunes seems awkward, but the writer imagines a very itunes like system as superior. Playstation over took Nintendo? No, not really, play station wasn't around when the NES was. Further, the logical conclusion from the video game industry example isn't that there is some mind blowing device lurking in our future that will defeat current systems. The video game industry teaches us that constant there will evolution of the product, as we currently see withe video ipod, along with increased market segmentation and competition.
The writer's introduction of sound quality as a weak point of the iPod, and as an opportunity for competitors is neglecting the fact that there is very little from a technology stand point preventing the iPod from playing higher resolution song files.
The subject of this article is also flawed. When Will the iPod Die? Could this perhaps be more dramatic only to leave the reader with essentially" beats the hell out of me"
Fortunately, I do know when the iPod will "die." Its market decline will begin when costs of hard drives decline. People will be more willing to take a substitute product for $15 over the Apple brand selling for $60. When that happens, Apple won't see a reason to stick around in a saturated business. Or perhaps they'll keep innovating and stave off this doom.
While I'm addressing the subject of the iPod death, its only fair to mention the much-hyped "iPod Killer" from Microsoft. One thing must be made very clear; No iPod Killer will be capable of stealing the iPods thunder by merely replicating it.
The iPod/iTunes is a product, as we all know, that offers an end-to-end user experience. Customers can buy their music, and listen to it. Videos are also an option. The iPod plays music and videos. That's it. if the iPod killer is going to live up to its name, it must do more than music and videos. Its the "more" that moves these products ahead, as the iPod has more songs than the walkman, the iPod Killer needs more features. The key for the MS camp is that the public has to want the features.
Two options come to mind to add to the song/video concept, cell phones and video games. The cellphone thing, according to rumor, is where the ipod is headed. I foresee a huge blunder on the part of apple if they pursue this strategy, but thats another story for another time.The portable video game system with iPod features could steal the spot light. The Nintendo DS, a hand held, is Nintendo's best seller. The PSP is also very popular. Simply put, people like having portable game systems, ever since the Gameboy. A market exists for the hand held xbox or what I have termed the "iBox"
The iBox could store video games instead of requiring the user to carry discs or cartridges. This parallels the innovation of the ipod over the walkman, eliminating the need for tangible media.
The path to create an online store to sell the games direct, offer demos and create an online community has been paved by Apple. If this hand held gaming device is created, Microsoft could easily add music play back, and then, like magic, Microsoft has a product with some utility instead of just cloning. The game device would remain inherently a gaming device, but why buy an ipod if you can get the same thing without it? No kid would want an ipod and a iBox, the iBox makes the iPod unnecessary. If Microsoft attacks the iPod head on, they will lose, if the create a superior product, like I've described, they will win.
Here's the fun part, the business end of all this. Apple hasn't a gaming bone in its body, it could not compete. On the other hand, Microsoft has never made a hand held and hasn't that bone either. Nintendo however has plenty of experience, and they are in Redmond too. Microsoft needs to either buy, merge or team up with Nintendo. Word in the street is that Microsoft is ready to spend a lot of money to allow people to download songs they've already purchased from apple. That investment could be spent in part, teaming up with Nintendo.
If this is done, the job at Microsoft is pretty simple, take the DS, stuff a hard drive in it, add the audio and video playback features and hand it to the marketing department. And then we can have a little funeral for the iPod.
Well, that's my take on things, it won't happen of course but we can dream...
When Will the iPod Die?
When Will the iPod Die?